Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Ryan LombergAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Leo CarlssonAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mason McTavish Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Nazem Kadri Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Leo Carlsson Goal Backhand1–2
- P310:41Cutter Gauthier Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (34), Beckett Sennecke (30)2–2
- P216:10Yegor Sharangovich Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (11), Morgan Frost (16)2–1
- P211:14Cutter Gauthier Goal (27) Batted, assists: Leo Carlsson (29)1–1
- P19:41Joel Farabee Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lomberg (5), John Beecher (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:41Joel Farabee Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lomberg (5), John Beecher (3)CGY 1 – 0 ANA · CGY 39% → 54% +16CGY 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P211:14Cutter Gauthier Goal (27) Batted, assists: Leo Carlsson (29)CGY 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 38% → 59% +21ANA 38% → 59%+21 pts
- P216:10Yegor Sharangovich Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (11), Morgan Frost (16)CGY 2 – 1 ANA · CGY 42% → 65% +23CGY 42% → 65%+23 pts
- P310:41Cutter Gauthier Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (34), Beckett Sennecke (30)CGY 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 21% → 55% +34ANA 21% → 55%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 62%
- ML CGY +154 / ANA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- ANA: Elo 61.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- ANA -165
- CGY +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +81 Elo | ANA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.6%25th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 31st of 329–20 | Road vs home | 19–94th of 32 |
| 29th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 26th of 321464 | Elo rating | 147723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–27 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28 | 37–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–3 ANA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.