Winnipeg Jets at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals1
- Cole PerfettiAssists2
- Alex IafalloPoints2
Ducks- Pavel MintyukovGoals1
- Beckett SenneckeAssists3
- Beckett SenneckePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:47Chris Kreider Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Beckett Sennecke (29)4–5
- P318:38Kyle Connor Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (14), Logan Stanley (11)4–4
- P316:50Ryan Poehling Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (12), Pavel Mintyukov (10)3–4
- P39:59Pavel Mintyukov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (28), Drew Helleson (10)3–3
- P36:32Leo Carlsson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (33), Beckett Sennecke (27)3–2
- P31:27Elias Salomonsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (12), Alex Iafallo (12)3–1
- P219:19Jacob Trouba Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Washe (2)2–1
- P22:25Gabriel Vilardi Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (40), Logan Stanley (10)2–0
- P11:24Alex Iafallo Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (13), Dylan Samberg (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:27Elias Salomonsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (12), Alex Iafallo (12)WPG 3 – 1 ANA · WPG 72% → 89% +17WPG 72% → 89%+17 pts
- P39:59Pavel Mintyukov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (28), Drew Helleson (10)WPG 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 20% → 52% +32ANA 20% → 52%+32 pts
- P316:50Ryan Poehling Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (12), Pavel Mintyukov (10)WPG 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 51% → 95% +44ANA 51% → 95%+44 pts
- P318:38Kyle Connor Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (14), Logan Stanley (11)WPG 4 – 4 ANA · WPG <1% → 49% +48WPG <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT4:47Chris Kreider Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Beckett Sennecke (29)WPG 4 – 5 ANA · ANA 50% → >99% +50ANA 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 55%
- ML WPG +114 / ANA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- ANA: Elo 51.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ANA -123
- WPG +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.6 – 2.9 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +10 Elo | ANA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.6%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 29th of 3211–18 | Road vs home | 18–94th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 19th of 321503 | Elo rating | 147523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–31 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–25 | 36–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–3 ANA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.