Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Lars EllerGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- Lars EllerPoints1
Flames- Martin PospisilGoals1
- Matvei GridinAssists1
- Martin PospisilPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:46Shane Pinto Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (15), Artem Zub (16)4–1
- P317:59Tim Stützle Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P36:33Dylan Cozens Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (26), Drake Batherson (31)2–1
- P29:35Lars Eller Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (17), Fabian Zetterlund (12)1–1
- P117:04Martin Pospisil Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (4), Yegor Sharangovich (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:04Martin Pospisil Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (4), Yegor Sharangovich (10)OTT 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 40% → 57% +17CGY 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P29:35Lars Eller Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (17), Fabian Zetterlund (12)OTT 1 – 1 CGY · OTT 38% → 58% +20OTT 38% → 58%+20 pts
- P36:33Dylan Cozens Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (26), Drake Batherson (31)OTT 2 – 1 CGY · OTT 56% → 82% +26OTT 56% → 82%+26 pts
- P317:59Tim Stützle Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 1 CGY · OTT 98% → >99% +2OTT 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:46Shane Pinto Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (15), Artem Zub (16)OTT 4 – 1 CGY · OTT 100% → 100% +0OTT 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 62%
- ML OTT -180 / CGY +150
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 53.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- OTT -161
- CGY +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.1 – 2.4 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | 0 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +27 Elo | OTT 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.7% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%6th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 13th of 3215–16 | Road vs home | 15–1518th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 32 |
| 11th of 321513 | Elo rating | 145829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–34 | 32–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 35–25 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–1 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.