Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Sam SteelGoals2
- Matt DucheneAssists4
- Matt DuchenePoints4
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Adam KlapkaAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints1
Scoring summary
- P219:41Wyatt Johnston Goal (33) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (16), Jason Robertson (38)6–1
- P28:48Nathan Bastian Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nils Lundkvist (5), Thomas Harley (22)5–1
- P26:02Sam Steel Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (15), Esa Lindell (19)4–1
- P22:26Mavrik Bourque Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Jason Robertson (37), Wyatt Johnston (32)3–1
- P111:54Jamie Benn Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (14), Sam Steel (19)2–1
- P19:52Morgan Frost Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Blake Coleman (9), Adam Klapka (8)1–1
- P18:44Sam Steel Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (13), Jamie Benn (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:44Sam Steel Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (13), Jamie Benn (15)DAL 1 – 0 CGY · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P19:52Morgan Frost Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Blake Coleman (9), Adam Klapka (8)DAL 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 31% → 46% +15CGY 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P111:54Jamie Benn Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (14), Sam Steel (19)DAL 2 – 1 CGY · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P22:26Mavrik Bourque Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Jason Robertson (37), Wyatt Johnston (32)DAL 3 – 1 CGY · DAL 71% → 84% +14DAL 71% → 84%+14 pts
- P26:02Sam Steel Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (15), Esa Lindell (19)DAL 4 – 1 CGY · DAL 85% → 94% +8DAL 85% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / CGY +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 55.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +35 Elo | DAL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%6th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3219–13 | Road vs home | 15–1417th of 32 |
| 30th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149231st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321560 | Elo rating | 146327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–35 | 32–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–33 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 29–31 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–3 CGY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.