St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals2
- Dylan HollowayAssists3
- Dylan HollowayPoints3
Sharks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Kiefer SherwoodPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:54Robert Thomas Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (18), Dylan Holloway (13)3–2
- P313:26Kiefer Sherwood Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (13), Collin Graf (19)2–2
- P217:46Robert Thomas Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (16), Dylan Holloway (12)2–1
- P214:31Macklin Celebrini Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (24), Tyler Toffoli (23)1–1
- P16:55Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (19), Dylan Holloway (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:55Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (19), Dylan Holloway (11)STL 1 – 0 SJ · STL 43% → 59% +15STL 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P214:31Macklin Celebrini Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (24), Tyler Toffoli (23)STL 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 33% → 55% +22SJ 33% → 55%+22 pts
- P217:46Robert Thomas Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (16), Dylan Holloway (12)STL 2 – 1 SJ · STL 46% → 69% +23STL 46% → 69%+23 pts
- P313:26Kiefer Sherwood Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (13), Collin Graf (19)STL 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 15% → 52% +38SJ 15% → 52%+38 pts
- OT0:54Robert Thomas Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (18), Dylan Holloway (13)STL 3 – 2 SJ · STL 48% → 91% +43STL 48% → 91%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 57%
- ML STL +124 / SJ -148
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- SJ: Elo 54.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SJ -134
- STL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +15 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +32 Elo | SJ 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.218th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 45.9%31st of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 31st of 329–20 | Road vs home | 17–1311th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 32 |
| 26th of 321466 | Elo rating | 144030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–30 | 39–20 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 29–11 | 37–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–4 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.