St. Louis Blues at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Vince DunnPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:34Vince Dunn Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (20), Jared McCann (17)3–2
- P31:33Robert Thomas Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (16), Philip Broberg (17)3–1
- P27:40Dylan Holloway Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (18), Brayden Schenn (15)2–1
- P16:50Logan Mailloux Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Brayden Schenn (14), Robert Thomas (24)1–1
- P10:31Jaden Schwartz Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (14), Vince Dunn (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:31Jaden Schwartz Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (14), Vince Dunn (27)STL 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 57% → 71% +14SEA 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P16:50Logan Mailloux Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Brayden Schenn (14), Robert Thomas (24)STL 1 – 1 SEA · STL 29% → 43% +14STL 29% → 43%+14 pts
- P27:40Dylan Holloway Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (18), Brayden Schenn (15)STL 2 – 1 SEA · STL 45% → 64% +20STL 45% → 64%+20 pts
- P31:33Robert Thomas Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (16), Philip Broberg (17)STL 3 – 1 SEA · STL 71% → 89% +18STL 71% → 89%+18 pts
- P313:34Vince Dunn Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (20), Jared McCann (17)STL 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 2% → 15% +13SEA 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML STL +124 / SEA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.9%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -134
- STL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −5 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 45.9%31st of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%3rd of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 32nd of 328–20 | Road vs home | 16–1416th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 32 |
| 26th of 321463 | Elo rating | 148521st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–30 | 40–20 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 28–11 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29 | 24–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–2 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.