St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:35Robert Thomas Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (24)3–1
- P316:21Pavel Buchnevich Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (15)2–1
- P218:05Logan Mailloux Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (23), Brayden Schenn (13)1–1
- P216:09Kirill Kaprizov Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (34), Quinn Hughes (54)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:09Kirill Kaprizov Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (34), Quinn Hughes (54)STL 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 61% → 80% +20MIN 61% → 80%+20 pts
- P218:05Logan Mailloux Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (23), Brayden Schenn (13)STL 1 – 1 MIN · STL 19% → 40% +20STL 19% → 40%+20 pts
- P316:21Pavel Buchnevich Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (15)STL 2 – 1 MIN · STL 46% → 91% +46STL 46% → 91%+46 pts
- P319:35Robert Thomas Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (24)STL 3 – 1 MIN · STL >99% → 100% +0STL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 67%
- ML STL +190 / MIN -230
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.3%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -202
- STL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 3.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +142 Elo | MIN 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 91.0%2nd of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–20 | Road vs home | 17–1312th of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 29th of 321457 | Elo rating | 15376th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–30 | 31–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 27–11 | 21–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–28 | 37–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–5 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.