Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints4
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:28Matt Boldy Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (25), Jake Middleton (13)5–2
- P319:03Martin Necas Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (55), Gabriel Landeskog (17)4–2
- P316:38Matt Boldy Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P315:08Mats Zuccarello Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (13), Kirill Kaprizov (40)3–1
- P217:37Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (32), Quinn Hughes (53)2–1
- P213:30Martin Necas Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (54), Josh Manson (21)1–1
- P27:48Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (31), Kirill Kaprizov (39)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:48Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (31), Kirill Kaprizov (39)MIN 1 – 0 COL · MIN 44% → 63% +20MIN 44% → 63%+20 pts
- P213:30Martin Necas Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (54), Josh Manson (21)MIN 1 – 1 COL · COL 34% → 56% +21COL 34% → 56%+21 pts
- P217:37Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (32), Quinn Hughes (53)MIN 2 – 1 COL · MIN 45% → 68% +23MIN 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P315:08Mats Zuccarello Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (13), Kirill Kaprizov (40)MIN 3 – 1 COL · MIN 89% → >99% +10MIN 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P316:38Matt Boldy Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 4 – 1 COL · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML MIN +130 / COL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- COL: Elo 57.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −4 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +53 Elo | COL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +1.41st of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 56.0%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 91.5%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217–11 | Road vs home | 21–71st of 32 |
| 27th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 5th of 321535 | Elo rating | 15862nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–28 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–24 | 29–26 |
| Underdog | 20–4 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 35–23 | 26–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–7 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.