Colorado Avalanche at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Parker KellyGoals1
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints2
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Jack McBainAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P217:17Martin Necas Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (43), Valeri Nichushkin (23)4–2
- P213:20Dylan Guenther Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (14), Logan Cooley (10)3–2
- P212:20Brock Nelson Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (16), Martin Necas (41)3–1
- P210:49Dylan Guenther Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (30), Clayton Keller (38)2–1
- P29:13Victor Olofsson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (23), Parker Kelly (10)2–0
- P23:26Parker Kelly Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (18), Josh Manson (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:26Parker Kelly Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (18), Josh Manson (20)COL 1 – 0 UTA · COL 52% → 69% +18COL 52% → 69%+18 pts
- P210:49Dylan Guenther Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (30), Clayton Keller (38)COL 2 – 1 UTA · UTA 14% → 29% +15UTA 14% → 29%+15 pts
- P212:20Brock Nelson Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (16), Martin Necas (41)COL 3 – 1 UTA · COL 72% → 87% +15COL 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P213:20Dylan Guenther Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (14), Logan Cooley (10)COL 3 – 2 UTA · UTA 13% → 28% +15UTA 13% → 28%+15 pts
- P217:17Martin Necas Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (43), Valeri Nichushkin (23)COL 4 – 2 UTA · COL 73% → 89% +15COL 73% → 89%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML COL -120 / UTA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- COL: Elo 53.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- UTA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.8 – 2.7 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +7 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +27 Elo | COL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.1% | Shot share | 51.6%7th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3216–11 | Road vs home | 17–106th of 32 |
| 24th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321582 | Elo rating | 15209th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–26 | 27–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–26 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–30 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–2 UTA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.
