Minnesota Wild at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Mammoth- Lawson CrouseGoals2
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:05Matt Boldy Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (17), Marcus Johansson (25)2–5
- P312:48Lawson Crouse Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Sean Durzi (15), Jack McBain (16)1–5
- P31:19Barrett Hayton Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (32), Clayton Keller (40)1–4
- P214:03Kirill Kaprizov Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (33), Mats Zuccarello (25)1–3
- P27:49Lawson Crouse Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Clayton Keller (39), Nick Schmaltz (32)0–3
- P24:26Clayton Keller Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (31)0–2
- P113:23Logan Cooley Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (15), Mikhail Sergachev (31)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:23Logan Cooley Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (15), Mikhail Sergachev (31)MIN 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 56% → 71% +15UTA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P24:26Clayton Keller Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (31)MIN 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 72% → 86% +13UTA 72% → 86%+13 pts
- P27:49Lawson Crouse Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Clayton Keller (39), Nick Schmaltz (32)MIN 0 – 3 UTA · UTA 87% → 95% +8UTA 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P214:03Kirill Kaprizov Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (33), Mats Zuccarello (25)MIN 1 – 3 UTA · MIN 4% → 11% +7MIN 4% → 11%+7 pts
- P31:19Barrett Hayton Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (32), Clayton Keller (40)MIN 1 – 4 UTA · UTA 92% → 98% +6UTA 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 56%
- ML MIN +120 / UTA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- UTA: Elo 57.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.4 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +52 Elo | UTA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 51.7%7th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3218–11 | Road vs home | 17–117th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 5th of 321541 | Elo rating | 151711th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–28 | 27–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–24 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 21–4 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 36–23 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–4 UTA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.
