New Jersey Devils at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dougie HamiltonGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Dougie HamiltonPoints1
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Pius SuterAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:55Nico Hischier Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (30), Connor Brown (13)3–1
- P318:42Pavel Buchnevich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (11)2–1
- P219:44Dougie Hamilton Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (27), Jacob Markstrom (3)2–0
- P25:37Timo Meier Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (6), Luke Hughes (22)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:37Timo Meier Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (6), Luke Hughes (22)NJ 1 – 0 STL · NJ 51% → 70% +18NJ 51% → 70%+18 pts
- P219:44Dougie Hamilton Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (27), Jacob Markstrom (3)NJ 2 – 0 STL · NJ 74% → 90% +16NJ 74% → 90%+16 pts
- P318:42Pavel Buchnevich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (11)NJ 2 – 1 STL · STL <1% → <1% +1STL <1% → <1%+1 pts
- P319:55Nico Hischier Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (30), Connor Brown (13)NJ 3 – 1 STL · NJ 100% → 100% +0NJ 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 52%
- ML NJ -118 / STL -102
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 45.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- NJ -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −8 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +28 Elo | STL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.1%31st of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 13th of 3215–16 | Road vs home | 14–1727th of 32 |
| 1st of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 28th of 321463 | Elo rating | 146129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–40 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–30 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 23–36 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.