New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Jake AllenAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:36
Mathew Barzal Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (16)3–1 - P316:33Bo Horvat Goal (24) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P218:26Nico Hischier Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (28), Jake Allen (1)1–1
- P26:30Casey Cizikas Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (4), Marc Gatcomb (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:30Casey Cizikas Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (4), Marc Gatcomb (3)NYI 1 – 0 NJ · NYI 49% → 68% +19NYI 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P218:26Nico Hischier Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (28), Jake Allen (1)NYI 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 28% → 51% +23NJ 28% → 51%+23 pts
- P316:33Bo Horvat Goal (24) Backhand, assists: noneNYI 2 – 1 NJ · NYI 50% → 94% +44NYI 50% → 94%+44 pts
- P319:36Mathew Barzal Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (16)NYI 3 – 1 NJ · NYI >99% → 100% +0NYI >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 51%
- ML NYI -105 / NJ -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +20 Elo | NJ 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 10th of 3215–14 | Road vs home | 13–1319th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 32 |
| 21st of 321488 | Elo rating | 147224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–27 | 19–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 3–17 | 5–28 |
| Underdog | 27–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 27–30 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 6–4 NJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.