Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Justin BrazeauGoals1
- Justin BrazeauAssists1
- Justin BrazeauPoints2
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals2
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Bo HorvatPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:52Bo Horvat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (34), Matthew Schaefer (23)4–5
- P315:24Ryan Pulock Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (33), Simon Holmstrom (16)4–4
- P310:40Justin Brazeau Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (8)4–3
- P38:37Mathew Barzal Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (7)3–3
- P214:09Bryan Rust Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (32), Ilya Solovyov (4)3–2
- P23:52Egor Chinakhov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (20), Erik Karlsson (31)2–2
- P119:56Matthew Schaefer Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (8), Bo Horvat (15)1–2
- P118:41Bo Horvat Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Anders Lee (20)1–1
- P112:09Anthony Mantha Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:09Bryan Rust Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (32), Ilya Solovyov (4)PIT 3 – 2 NYI · PIT 51% → 72% +21PIT 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P38:37Mathew Barzal Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (7)PIT 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 19% → 49% +30NYI 19% → 49%+30 pts
- P310:40Justin Brazeau Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (8)PIT 4 – 3 NYI · PIT 51% → 83% +32PIT 51% → 83%+32 pts
- P315:24Ryan Pulock Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (33), Simon Holmstrom (16)PIT 4 – 4 NYI · NYI 9% → 49% +40NYI 9% → 49%+40 pts
- OT0:52Bo Horvat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (34), Matthew Schaefer (23)PIT 4 – 5 NYI · NYI 49% → 92% +42NYI 49% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -120 / NYI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- NYI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYI and PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +13 Elo | NYI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%4th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3215–10 | Road vs home | 15–1212th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 19th of 321503 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–21 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 3–17 |
| Underdog | 24–6 | 26–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–26 | 26–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–5 NYI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.