Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:30Timo Meier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (25), Jesper Bratt (29)2–1
- P310:36Peyton Krebs Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (30)2–0
- P28:10Tage Thompson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (19), Bowen Byram (19)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:10Tage Thompson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (19), Bowen Byram (19)BUF 1 – 0 NJ · BUF 50% → 69% +19BUF 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P310:36Peyton Krebs Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (30)BUF 2 – 0 NJ · BUF 82% → 97% +15BUF 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P317:30Timo Meier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (25), Jesper Bratt (29)BUF 2 – 1 NJ · NJ <1% → 4% +4NJ <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 50%
- ML BUF -108 / NJ -112
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 47.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NJ -102
- BUF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +2 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +18 Elo | BUF 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 51.4%10th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 11th of 3215–14 | Road vs home | 13–1424th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 32 |
| 7th of 321525 | Elo rating | 146824th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–24 | 19–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 5–29 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 30–27 | 23–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–5 NJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.