Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Avery HayesGoals2
- Parker WotherspoonAssists1
- Avery HayesPoints2
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:46Ben Kindel Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (11)5–2
- P315:33Thomas Novak Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Egor Chinakhov (7), Evgeni Malkin (31)4–2
- P31:55Tage Thompson Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (25), Rasmus Dahlin (37)3–2
- P27:44Ben Kindel Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P118:47Avery Hayes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (22), Parker Wotherspoon (16)2–1
- P19:18Avery Hayes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Solovyov (5), Rutger McGroarty (3)1–1
- P11:46Jason Zucker Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (30), Bowen Byram (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:46Jason Zucker Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (30), Bowen Byram (18)PIT 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 53% → 67% +14BUF 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P19:18Avery Hayes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Solovyov (5), Rutger McGroarty (3)PIT 1 – 1 BUF · PIT 32% → 47% +15PIT 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P118:47Avery Hayes Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (22), Parker Wotherspoon (16)PIT 2 – 1 BUF · PIT 47% → 65% +17PIT 47% → 65%+17 pts
- P27:44Ben Kindel Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 3 – 1 BUF · PIT 67% → 83% +16PIT 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P31:55Tage Thompson Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (25), Rasmus Dahlin (37)PIT 3 – 2 BUF · BUF 10% → 27% +17BUF 10% → 27%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 53%
- ML PIT +105 / BUF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 60.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +73 Elo | BUF 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 47.9%24th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.6%6th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 5th of 3215–11 | Road vs home | 17–106th of 32 |
| 31st of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 19th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–22 | 33–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 24–6 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 29–26 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–3 BUF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.