New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Paul CotterGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Paul CotterPoints1
Penguins- Connor CliftonGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:01Blake Lizotte Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P37:20Egor Chinakhov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (33)1–3
- P36:30Connor Clifton Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (20), Anthony Mantha (23)1–2
- P24:56Paul Cotter Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Dougie Hamilton (15), Jack Hughes (26)1–1
- P118:51Thomas Novak Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (23), Evgeni Malkin (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:51Thomas Novak Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (23), Evgeni Malkin (32)NJ 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 58% → 74% +16PIT 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P24:56Paul Cotter Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Dougie Hamilton (15), Jack Hughes (26)NJ 1 – 1 PIT · NJ 26% → 43% +17NJ 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P36:30Connor Clifton Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (20), Anthony Mantha (23)NJ 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 54% → 81% +27PIT 54% → 81%+27 pts
- P37:20Egor Chinakhov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (33)NJ 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 82% → 96% +14PIT 82% → 96%+14 pts
- P318:01Blake Lizotte Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 4 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML NJ +136 / PIT -162
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 64.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -146
- NJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +107 Elo | PIT 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 51.6%9th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 32 |
| 12th of 3215–15 | Road vs home | 12–1526th of 32 |
| 1st of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149331st of 32 |
| 25th of 321466 | Elo rating | 150617th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–39 | 34–22 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–30 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 25–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–35 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 5–4 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.