Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals2
- Mike MathesonAssists3
- Mike MathesonPoints3
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists3
- Macklin CelebriniPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:56Adam Gaudette Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (57)5–7
- P316:34Kiefer Sherwood Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (12), William Eklund (27)5–6
- P310:56Alex Newhook Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (14), Mike Matheson (26)5–5
- P35:20Alex Newhook Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (8), Kaiden Guhle (4)4–5
- P35:02Ivan Demidov Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (50), Nick Suzuki (50)3–5
- P33:29Will Smith Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (56), Dmitry Orlov (23)2–5
- P218:48Alexander Wennberg Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (7)2–4
- P218:23Macklin Celebrini Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (18)2–3
- P210:28Michael Misa Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P25:09Phillip Danault Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (25), Jake Evans (7)2–1
- P115:32Collin Graf Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Will Smith (24), Macklin Celebrini (55)1–1
- P16:18Oliver Kapanen Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (26), Mike Matheson (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:09Phillip Danault Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (25), Jake Evans (7)MTL 2 – 1 SJ · MTL 54% → 72% +18MTL 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P210:28Michael Misa Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 27% → 46% +19SJ 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P218:23Macklin Celebrini Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (18)MTL 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 47% → 70% +23SJ 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P310:56Alex Newhook Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (14), Mike Matheson (26)MTL 5 – 5 SJ · MTL 19% → 52% +33MTL 19% → 52%+33 pts
- P316:34Kiefer Sherwood Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (12), William Eklund (27)MTL 5 – 6 SJ · SJ 49% → 93% +44SJ 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 55%
- ML MTL -135 / SJ +114
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- MTL: Elo 58.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -123
- SJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −9 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +59 Elo | MTL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 46.0%30th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 8th of 3216–13 | Road vs home | 16–1314th of 32 |
| 5th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321516 | Elo rating | 143630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–25 | 38–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 27–4 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–22 | 29–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.