New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals2
- Simon HolmstromAssists2
- Matthew SchaeferPoints2
Canadiens- Noah DobsonGoals2
- Lane HutsonAssists1
- Noah DobsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:46Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (18)4–3
- P318:19Anders Lee Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Bo Horvat (17), Simon Holmstrom (17)3–3
- P39:11Cole Caufield Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (35), Juraj Slafkovský (25)2–3
- P218:51Matthew Schaefer Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (21), Ilya Sorokin (1)2–2
- P217:56Matthew Schaefer Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (35), Calum Ritchie (9)1–2
- P210:06Noah Dobson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (12), Alex Newhook (7)0–2
- P112:11Noah Dobson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (49)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:11Noah Dobson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (49)NYI 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 57% → 72% +15MTL 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P218:51Matthew Schaefer Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (21), Ilya Sorokin (1)NYI 2 – 2 MTL · NYI 23% → 45% +22NYI 23% → 45%+22 pts
- P39:11Cole Caufield Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (35), Juraj Slafkovský (25)NYI 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 54% → 83% +29MTL 54% → 83%+29 pts
- P318:19Anders Lee Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Bo Horvat (17), Simon Holmstrom (17)NYI 3 – 3 MTL · NYI 1% → 49% +47NYI 1% → 49%+47 pts
- OT1:46Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (18)NYI 4 – 3 MTL · NYI 48% → 94% +46NYI 48% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 58%
- ML NYI +130 / MTL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- MTL: Elo 57.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -140
- NYI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.5 – 3.0 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −5 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +51 Elo | MTL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 88.7%24th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 10th of 3216–14 | Road vs home | 16–1211th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 32 |
| 20th of 321492 | Elo rating | 151512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–27 | 33–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–17 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 28–10 | 27–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–31 | 35–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–3 MTL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.