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Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, MNMT

Away

Capitals

31-24-7

2–6

at

Home

Canadiens

33-17-9

WSH 41%MTL 59%

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Bell Centre · ESPN+, MNMT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.

MTL favored WSH favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3MTL50%WSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canadiens

Scoring summary

  • P318:35Jake Evans Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
  • P316:44Nick Suzuki Goal (19) Backhand, assists: none2–5
  • P312:12Alex Ovechkin Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (32), Anthony Beauvillier (10)2–4
  • P216:34Kirby Dach Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (49)1–4
  • P212:22Mike Matheson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (14), Alex Newhook (8)1–3
  • P114:19Cole Caufield Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (48), Jayden Struble (9)1–2
  • P113:16Alex Ovechkin Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (9), Declan Chisholm (5)1–1
  • P10:30Cole Caufield Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:30Cole Caufield Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: noneWSH 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 59% → 73% +13
  2. P113:16Alex Ovechkin Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (9), Declan Chisholm (5)WSH 1 – 1 MTL · WSH 27% → 42% +15
  3. P114:19Cole Caufield Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (48), Jayden Struble (9)WSH 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 58% → 73% +15
  4. P212:22Mike Matheson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (14), Alex Newhook (8)WSH 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 76% → 89% +13
  5. P216:34Kirby Dach Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (49)WSH 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 91% → 97% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Canadiens 59%

LeanHit
WSH 41%MTL 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
MTL 59%
ML WSH +136 / MTL -162
Pre-line forecast
MTL 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MTL 60%
Ratings vs. market
+1.0 pts
MTL: Elo 60.3%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
MTL -146
WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WSH 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWSHMTLWhy
Team rating15171512Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—WSH on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−10+3WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMTL +73 EloMTL 60.3%
Market-implied ratingsMTL 60.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMTL 60.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMTL 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Washington Capitals and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
WSHStatMTL
16th of 323.2Goals scored3.54th of 32
8th of 323.0Goals allowed3.324th of 32
9th of 32+0.2Margin+0.212th of 32
12th of 3250.8%Shot share49.0%20th of 32
8th of 3290.4%Save percentage88.6%24th of 32
5th of 327–3Last 106–411th of 32
25th of 3212–17Road vs home16–1313th of 32
22nd of 321500Opponent Elo15055th of 32
11th of 321517Elo rating151212th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CapitalsCanadiens
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWSHMTL
Puck line33–2833–25
Last 107–37–3
Favorite19–236–21
Underdog14–527–4
Overs–unders28–3336–22
Overs–unders, last 103–76–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WSH 9–4 MTL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.