Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Travis SanheimAssists1
- Noah CatesPoints1
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists1
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:34Aliaksei Protas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P314:08Trevor van Riemsdyk Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (4), Aliaksei Protas (20)1–2
- P30:29Noah Cates Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (19), Bobby Brink (12)1–1
- P213:52Rasmus Sandin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (8), Jakob Chychrun (26)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:52Rasmus Sandin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (8), Jakob Chychrun (26)PHI 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 54% → 74% +20WSH 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P30:29Noah Cates Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (19), Bobby Brink (12)PHI 1 – 1 WSH · PHI 23% → 46% +23PHI 23% → 46%+23 pts
- P314:08Trevor van Riemsdyk Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (4), Aliaksei Protas (20)PHI 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 52% → 89% +37WSH 52% → 89%+37 pts
- P319:34Aliaksei Protas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: nonePHI 1 – 3 WSH · WSH >99% → 100% +0WSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 56%
- ML PHI +120 / WSH -142
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 61.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 2.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +6 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +85 Elo | WSH 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 21st of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 17–1312th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 32 |
| 28th of 321460 | Elo rating | 151214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–22 | 32–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 26–12 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 32–24 | 28–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–6 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.