Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Brayden McNabbAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Capitals- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals2
- Rasmus SandinAssists2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:15Tomas Hertl Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (19), Mitch Marner (43)2–3
- P32:27Braeden Bowman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (10), Brayden McNabb (4)1–3
- P214:52Jakob Chychrun Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (18), Pierre-Luc Dubois (2)0–3
- P23:23Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (22)0–2
- P20:49Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (21), Rasmus Sandin (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:49Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (21), Rasmus Sandin (17)VGK 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 51% → 68% +17WSH 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P23:23Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (22)VGK 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 69% → 83% +14WSH 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P214:52Jakob Chychrun Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (18), Pierre-Luc Dubois (2)VGK 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 87% → 96% +8WSH 87% → 96%+8 pts
- P32:27Braeden Bowman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (10), Brayden McNabb (4)VGK 1 – 3 WSH · VGK 2% → 9% +7VGK 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P39:15Tomas Hertl Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (19), Mitch Marner (43)VGK 2 – 3 WSH · VGK 4% → 19% +15VGK 4% → 19%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML VGK -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- VGK +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.7 – 2.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +39 Elo | WSH 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%8th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 15th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 18–1310th of 32 |
| 31st of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 9th of 321520 | Elo rating | 151511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–37 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–36 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 34–24 | 28–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–3 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.