Winnipeg Jets at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Cole KoepkeAssists1
- Morgan BarronPoints1
Sharks- Michael MisaGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Will SmithPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:40Michael Misa Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (26), Sam Dickinson (9)1–2
- P31:47Will Smith Goal (18) Batted, assists: Collin Graf (17), Macklin Celebrini (54)1–1
- P12:44Morgan Barron Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (4), Cole Koepke (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:44Morgan Barron Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (4), Cole Koepke (7)WPG 1 – 0 SJ · WPG 52% → 67% +14WPG 52% → 67%+14 pts
- P31:47Will Smith Goal (18) Batted, assists: Collin Graf (17), Macklin Celebrini (54)WPG 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 24% → 49% +24SJ 24% → 49%+24 pts
- OT1:40Michael Misa Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (26), Sam Dickinson (9)WPG 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 49% → 94% +44SJ 49% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML WPG -120 / SJ +100
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 56.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -109
- SJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +14 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +48 Elo | WPG 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 45.8%31st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 29th of 3211–19 | Road vs home | 15–1314th of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Elo rating | 143330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–31 | 37–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 35–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 5–2 SJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.