St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals1
- Jimmy SnuggerudAssists1
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints2
DucksScoring summary
- P315:58Pius Suter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (25), Justin Holl (1)4–0
- P212:11Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (25), Dylan Holloway (14)3–0
- P210:07Jonathan Drouin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (19), Jimmy Snuggerud (17)2–0
- P24:22Jordan Kyrou Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (12), Cam Fowler (20)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:22Jordan Kyrou Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (12), Cam Fowler (20)STL 1 – 0 ANA · STL 42% → 60% +19STL 42% → 60%+19 pts
- P210:07Jonathan Drouin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (19), Jimmy Snuggerud (17)STL 2 – 0 ANA · STL 63% → 80% +17STL 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P212:11Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (25), Dylan Holloway (14)STL 3 – 0 ANA · STL 81% → 92% +11STL 81% → 92%+11 pts
- P315:58Pius Suter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (25), Justin Holl (1)STL 4 – 0 ANA · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 61%
- ML STL +145 / ANA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- ANA: Elo 55.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ANA -156
- STL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −7 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +36 Elo | ANA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 51.0%11th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.7%24th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 31st of 3210–20 | Road vs home | 22–104th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 32 |
| 25th of 321468 | Elo rating | 148321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–30 | 31–31 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 30–11 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 38–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–1 ANA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.