Montreal Canadiens at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints3
Ducks- Chris KreiderGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists3
- Chris KreiderPoints4
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Alex Killorn Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Ivan Demidov Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Cutter Gauthier Goal Snap Shot1–2
- P319:18Chris Kreider Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (20), Jackson LaCombe (36)5–5
- P313:04Cole Caufield Goal (37) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (30), Lane Hutson (52)5–4
- P311:47Alexandre Carrier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (9), Zachary Bolduc (15)4–4
- P38:41Cole Caufield Goal (36) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (29), Lane Hutson (51)3–4
- P30:35Leo Carlsson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (18), Jacob Trouba (19)2–4
- P212:15Jackson LaCombe Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (25), Chris Kreider (17)2–3
- P111:56Radko Gudas Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (4), Ryan Poehling (18)2–2
- P13:33Lane Hutson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (28), Nick Suzuki (51)2–1
- P11:01Nick Suzuki Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (26), Juraj Slafkovský (27)1–1
- P10:39Cutter Gauthier Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (31), Chris Kreider (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:15Jackson LaCombe Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (25), Chris Kreider (17)MTL 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 49% → 69% +21ANA 49% → 69%+21 pts
- P30:35Leo Carlsson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (18), Jacob Trouba (19)MTL 2 – 4 ANA · ANA 73% → 90% +16ANA 73% → 90%+16 pts
- P311:47Alexandre Carrier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (9), Zachary Bolduc (15)MTL 4 – 4 ANA · MTL 17% → 51% +34MTL 17% → 51%+34 pts
- P313:04Cole Caufield Goal (37) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (30), Lane Hutson (52)MTL 5 – 4 ANA · MTL 51% → 86% +36MTL 51% → 86%+36 pts
- P319:18Chris Kreider Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (20), Jackson LaCombe (36)MTL 5 – 5 ANA · ANA <1% → 50% +50ANA <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 52%
- ML MTL -118 / ANA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MTL: Elo 48.2%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- MTL -107
- ANA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +3 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +12 Elo | ANA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 50.9%11th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 9th of 3216–14 | Road vs home | 21–104th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–26 | 30–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–22 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 27–4 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 38–22 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–1 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.