Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Parker KellyGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Cale MakarPoints3
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals1
- Jackson LaCombeAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:06Parker Kelly Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (13), Brett Kulak (9)5–1
- P34:35Gabriel Landeskog Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (59)4–1
- P215:03Parker Kelly Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (46), Jack Drury (12)3–1
- P24:50Cutter Gauthier Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (35)2–1
- P114:05Martin Necas Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (22), Cale Makar (45)2–0
- P111:33Cale Makar Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (24), Brock Nelson (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:33Cale Makar Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (24), Brock Nelson (21)COL 1 – 0 ANA · COL 56% → 72% +15COL 56% → 72%+15 pts
- P114:05Martin Necas Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (22), Cale Makar (45)COL 2 – 0 ANA · COL 72% → 84% +12COL 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P24:50Cutter Gauthier Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (35)COL 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 14% → 27% +13ANA 14% → 27%+13 pts
- P215:03Parker Kelly Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (46), Jack Drury (12)COL 3 – 1 ANA · COL 75% → 89% +14COL 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P34:35Gabriel Landeskog Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (59)COL 4 – 1 ANA · COL 94% → 99% +5COL 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML COL -148 / ANA +124
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- COL: Elo 56.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -134
- ANA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +45 Elo | COL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 88.7%24th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3218–11 | Road vs home | 20–94th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 1st of 321585 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–27 | 29–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–27 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–2 ANA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.