Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Cale MakarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:33Cale Makar Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (57), Martin Necas (43)1–3
- P37:31Gavin Brindley Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (24), Devon Toews (13)1–2
- P219:51Cale Makar Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (56), Martin Necas (42)1–1
- P16:31Connor Bedard Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (18), Teuvo Teravainen (15)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:31Connor Bedard Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (18), Teuvo Teravainen (15)CHI 1 – 0 COL · CHI 26% → 40% +14CHI 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P219:51Cale Makar Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (56), Martin Necas (42)CHI 1 – 1 COL · COL 41% → 65% +25COL 41% → 65%+25 pts
- P37:31Gavin Brindley Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (24), Devon Toews (13)CHI 1 – 2 COL · COL 62% → 87% +25COL 62% → 87%+25 pts
- P318:33Cale Makar Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (57), Martin Necas (43)CHI 1 – 3 COL · COL >99% → >99% +1COL >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 75%
- ML CHI +285 / COL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- COL: Elo 75.1%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -301
- CHI +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −5 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +191 Elo | COL 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.7% | Shot share | 56.0%2nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.5%1st of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 29th of 3210–17 | Road vs home | 21–81st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321416 | Elo rating | 15802nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–21 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 29–27 |
| Underdog | 37–19 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 25–33 | 27–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–6 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.