Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Gabriel LandeskogGoals1
- Gabriel LandeskogAssists2
- Gabriel LandeskogPoints3
Kings- Angus BoothGoals1
- Brian DumoulinAssists1
- Brandt ClarkePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:58Martin Necas Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (19)4–2
- P315:05Devon Toews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (58), Cale Makar (44)3–2
- P28:32Angus Booth Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brian Dumoulin (12), Adrian Kempe (28)2–2
- P117:20Brandt Clarke Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (18)2–1
- P110:13Gabriel Landeskog Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (19), Martin Necas (45)2–0
- P14:27Nathan MacKinnon Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (44), Gabriel Landeskog (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:27Nathan MacKinnon Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (44), Gabriel Landeskog (18)COL 1 – 0 LA · COL 62% → 75% +13COL 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P110:13Gabriel Landeskog Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (19), Martin Necas (45)COL 2 – 0 LA · COL 75% → 86% +11COL 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P117:20Brandt Clarke Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (18)COL 2 – 1 LA · LA 13% → 24% +11LA 13% → 24%+11 pts
- P28:32Angus Booth Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brian Dumoulin (12), Adrian Kempe (28)COL 2 – 2 LA · LA 23% → 41% +18LA 23% → 41%+18 pts
- P315:05Devon Toews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (58), Cale Makar (44)COL 3 – 2 LA · COL 54% → 91% +38COL 54% → 91%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 62%
- ML COL -185 / LA +154
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- COL: Elo 59.1%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -165
- LA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 2.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +64 Elo | COL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.2% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217–11 | Road vs home | 9–2030th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 1st of 321582 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–27 | 21–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–27 | 6–30 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 27–31 | 26–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–2 LA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.