New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Chris KreiderAssists2
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:49Frank Vatrano Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (18)1–5
- P32:11Ryan Poehling Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ryan Strome (6)1–4
- P118:40Beckett Sennecke Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (19), Ian Moore (8)1–3
- P116:05Cutter Gauthier Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (30), Chris Kreider (15)1–2
- P112:56Cutter Gauthier Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (31), Chris Kreider (14)1–1
- P14:58Anders Lee Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (25), Jonathan Drouin (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:58Anders Lee Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (25), Jonathan Drouin (18)NYI 1 – 0 ANA · NYI 53% → 68% +15NYI 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P112:56Cutter Gauthier Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (31), Chris Kreider (14)NYI 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 31% → 47% +16ANA 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P116:05Cutter Gauthier Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (30), Chris Kreider (15)NYI 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 47% → 64% +17ANA 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P118:40Beckett Sennecke Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (19), Ian Moore (8)NYI 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 65% → 79% +15ANA 65% → 79%+15 pts
- P32:11Ryan Poehling Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ryan Strome (6)NYI 1 – 4 ANA · ANA 90% → 98% +7ANA 90% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 53%
- ML NYI -125 / ANA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- NYI: Elo 54.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -114
- ANA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −11 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +29 Elo | NYI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.6%25th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218–14 | Road vs home | 20–104th of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Elo rating | 147524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–27 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–17 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 31–10 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31 | 37–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–2 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.