Florida Panthers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists3
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals2
- Tony DeAngeloAssists2
- Matthew SchaeferPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:28Anders Lee Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (24), Adam Pelech (8)4–5
- P318:02Sam Reinhart Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (20), Matthew Tkachuk (8)4–4
- P310:29Matthew Schaefer Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (9)3–4
- P217:14Bo Horvat Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (24)3–3
- P212:04Sam Bennett Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (7)3–2
- P27:28Carson Soucy Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (19), Tony DeAngelo (23)2–2
- P118:01Matthew Schaefer Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (21), Mathew Barzal (38)2–1
- P114:54Sam Bennett Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (19), Matthew Tkachuk (6)2–0
- P13:44Sandis Vilmanis Goal (3) Backhand, assists: A.J. Greer (11), Sergei Bobrovsky (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:04Sam Bennett Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (7)FLA 3 – 2 NYI · FLA 56% → 75% +19FLA 56% → 75%+19 pts
- P217:14Bo Horvat Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (24)FLA 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 24% → 45% +21NYI 24% → 45%+21 pts
- P310:29Matthew Schaefer Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (9)FLA 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 47% → 80% +33NYI 47% → 80%+33 pts
- P318:02Sam Reinhart Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (20), Matthew Tkachuk (8)FLA 4 – 4 NYI · FLA 2% → 52% +49FLA 2% → 52%+49 pts
- P319:28Anders Lee Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (24), Adam Pelech (8)FLA 4 – 5 NYI · NYI 49% → >99% +51NYI 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML FLA -155 / NYI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- FLA: Elo 54.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -140
- NYI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +32 Elo | FLA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%3rd of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 10th of 3214–12 | Road vs home | 16–1211th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 7th of 321528 | Elo rating | 149820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–39 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–34 | 3–17 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 30–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–3 NYI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.