Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals1
- Sam BennettAssists1
- Sam BennettPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:25Sam Bennett Goal (20) , assists: none3–2
- P318:43
Peyton Krebs Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (31), Alex Tuch (27)3–1 - P311:38Beck Malenstyn Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (12), Noah Ostlund (10)2–1
- P213:51Matthew Tkachuk Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (26), Sam Bennett (25)1–1
- P117:48Alex Tuch Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (31), Bowen Byram (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:48Alex Tuch Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (31), Bowen Byram (20)BUF 1 – 0 FLA · BUF 49% → 66% +17BUF 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P213:51Matthew Tkachuk Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (26), Sam Bennett (25)BUF 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 30% → 51% +21FLA 30% → 51%+21 pts
- P311:38Beck Malenstyn Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (12), Noah Ostlund (10)BUF 2 – 1 FLA · BUF 50% → 83% +34BUF 50% → 83%+34 pts
- P318:43Peyton Krebs Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (31), Alex Tuch (27)BUF 3 – 1 FLA · BUF >99% → >99% +1BUF >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:25Sam Bennett Goal (20) , assists: noneBUF 3 – 2 FLA · FLA <1% → <1% +0FLA <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 51%
- ML BUF -105 / FLA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 48.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -104
- BUF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −12 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +8 Elo | BUF 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 53.0%5th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.3%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 11th of 3216–14 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 32 |
| 8th of 321527 | Elo rating | 15306th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–24 | 20–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 9–33 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–7 FLA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.