New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Scott MayfieldGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Scott MayfieldPoints2
Blue Jackets- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists2
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:47Simon Holmstrom Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (22), Mathew Barzal (37)4–3
- P218:58Adam Fantilli Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (45)3–3
- P217:10Scott Mayfield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (36)3–2
- P211:59Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: none2–2
- P211:37Anders Lee Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (8), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (13)1–2
- P23:58Mason Marchment Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (28), Zach Werenski (44)0–2
- P12:30Isac Lundeström Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (5), Miles Wood (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:37Anders Lee Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (8), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (13)NYI 1 – 2 CBJ · NYI 12% → 26% +14NYI 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P211:59Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: noneNYI 2 – 2 CBJ · NYI 26% → 46% +20NYI 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P217:10Scott Mayfield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (36)NYI 3 – 2 CBJ · NYI 46% → 69% +23NYI 46% → 69%+23 pts
- P218:58Adam Fantilli Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (45)NYI 3 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 30% → 54% +24CBJ 30% → 54%+24 pts
- OT1:47Simon Holmstrom Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (22), Mathew Barzal (37)NYI 4 – 3 CBJ · NYI 49% → 94% +45NYI 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 56%
- ML NYI +120 / CBJ -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CBJ: Elo 58.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -129
- NYI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.6 – 2.9 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +15 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +59 Elo | CBJ 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3217–14 | Road vs home | 15–1213th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 20th of 321495 | Elo rating | 150617th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–27 | 32–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–17 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 29–10 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–4 CBJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.