Columbus Blue Jackets at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Mason MarchmentAssists2
- Adam FantilliPoints2
Bruins- Viktor ArvidssonGoals2
- Casey MittelstadtAssists1
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:27Viktor Arvidsson Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (36), Casey Mittelstadt (17)2–4
- P313:45Adam Fantilli Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (15), Zach Werenski (43)2–3
- P311:15Sean Kuraly Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (15)1–3
- P26:54Morgan Geekie Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (50), Elias Lindholm (27)1–2
- P115:51Viktor Arvidsson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Aspirot (6)1–1
- P14:32Kirill Marchenko Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (14), Adam Fantilli (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:32Kirill Marchenko Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (14), Adam Fantilli (24)CBJ 1 – 0 BOS · CBJ 49% → 64% +15CBJ 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P115:51Viktor Arvidsson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Aspirot (6)CBJ 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 34% → 51% +17BOS 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P26:54Morgan Geekie Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (50), Elias Lindholm (27)CBJ 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 51% → 70% +19BOS 51% → 70%+19 pts
- P311:15Sean Kuraly Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (15)CBJ 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 83% → 97% +14BOS 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P313:45Adam Fantilli Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (15), Zach Werenski (43)CBJ 2 – 3 BOS · CBJ 1% → 13% +12CBJ 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML CBJ -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −4 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +33 Elo | BOS 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 47.5%26th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 15th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 21–92nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 15th of 321509 | Elo rating | 150119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–24 | 37–20 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 25–12 | 29–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28 | 33–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.