New York Islanders at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints3
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals1
- Jimmy SnuggerudAssists2
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:11Mathew Barzal Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (17), Tony DeAngelo (26)4–3
- P36:52Bo Horvat Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (11), Mathew Barzal (42)3–3
- P35:52Calum Ritchie Goal (8) , assists: none2–3
- P217:50Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (27), Mathew Barzal (41)1–3
- P210:37Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (27), Theo Lindstein (1)0–3
- P29:10Dylan Holloway Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (21), Jimmy Snuggerud (19)0–2
- P14:06Philip Broberg Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (18), Robert Thomas (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:06Philip Broberg Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (18), Robert Thomas (26)NYI 0 – 1 STL · STL 47% → 62% +15STL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P29:10Dylan Holloway Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (21), Jimmy Snuggerud (19)NYI 0 – 2 STL · STL 67% → 83% +16STL 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P35:52Calum Ritchie Goal (8) , assists: noneNYI 2 – 3 STL · NYI 7% → 24% +17NYI 7% → 24%+17 pts
- P36:52Bo Horvat Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (11), Mathew Barzal (42)NYI 3 – 3 STL · NYI 23% → 52% +29NYI 23% → 52%+29 pts
- OT2:11Mathew Barzal Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (17), Tony DeAngelo (26)NYI 4 – 3 STL · NYI 51% → 96% +45NYI 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 53%
- ML NYI -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 46.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +8 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +22 Elo | STL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.731st of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 8th of 3219–16 | Road vs home | 14–1827th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 19th of 321493 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–30 | 33–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–19 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 31–11 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–33 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–3 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.