New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Matthew SchaeferAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Will SmithAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:20Bo Horvat Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Matthew Schaefer (26), Mathew Barzal (40)2–1
- P20:33Macklin Celebrini Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (25), John Klingberg (12)1–1
- P111:37Tony DeAngelo Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (10)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:37Tony DeAngelo Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (10)NYI 1 – 0 SJ · NYI 56% → 72% +15NYI 56% → 72%+15 pts
- P20:33Macklin Celebrini Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (25), John Klingberg (12)NYI 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 28% → 44% +17SJ 28% → 44%+17 pts
- OT4:20Bo Horvat Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Matthew Schaefer (26), Mathew Barzal (40)NYI 2 – 1 SJ · NYI 51% → >99% +49NYI 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 57%
- ML NYI -148 / SJ +124
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 58.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -134
- SJ +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −11 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +60 Elo | NYI 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 10th of 3218–16 | Road vs home | 17–1414th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 143830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–29 | 39–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–18 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 31–11 | 37–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32 | 30–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–1 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.