New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Emil HeinemanGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints2
Kings- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:01Emil Heineman Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (25), Mathew Barzal (39)3–5
- P38:30Adrian Kempe Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (24), Artemi Panarin (42)2–5
- P34:30Adam Pelech Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (15)2–4
- P32:30Alex Laferriere Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (23), Darcy Kuemper (1)1–4
- P219:59Bo Horvat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (14)1–3
- P215:51Mikey Anderson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (12), Adrian Kempe (29)0–3
- P214:20Samuel Helenius Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (6), Taylor Ward (3)0–2
- P13:17Artemi Panarin Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (19), Mikey Anderson (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:17Artemi Panarin Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (19), Mikey Anderson (8)NYI 0 – 1 LA · LA 52% → 67% +14LA 52% → 67%+14 pts
- P214:20Samuel Helenius Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (6), Taylor Ward (3)NYI 0 – 2 LA · LA 72% → 88% +15LA 72% → 88%+15 pts
- P215:51Mikey Anderson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (12), Adrian Kempe (29)NYI 0 – 3 LA · LA 88% → 96% +8LA 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P219:59Bo Horvat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (14)NYI 1 – 3 LA · NYI 3% → 10% +7NYI 3% → 10%+7 pts
- P32:30Alex Laferriere Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (23), Darcy Kuemper (1)NYI 1 – 4 LA · LA 92% → 98% +6LA 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 52%
- ML NYI +100 / LA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- LA: Elo 56.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -109
- NYI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +46 Elo | LA 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.0%14th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%12th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 9th of 3218–15 | Road vs home | 9–2130th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 32 |
| 19th of 321495 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–28 | 21–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–18 | 6–30 |
| Underdog | 31–10 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 30–32 | 27–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–3 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.