Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints3
Hurricanes- Alexander NikishinGoals1
- Alexander NikishinAssists1
- Alexander NikishinPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jackson Blake Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Andrei Svechnikov Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Ben Kindel Goal Snap Shot1–2
- P319:24Bryan Rust Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (17), Erik Karlsson (38)4–4
- P317:52Noel Acciari Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (26), Egor Chinakhov (11)3–4
- P311:21Alexander Nikishin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (43), Nikolaj Ehlers (31)2–4
- P33:48Seth Jarvis Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (33)2–3
- P32:49Mark Jankowski Goal (6) Backhand, assists: William Carrier (8), Alexander Nikishin (16)2–2
- P211:44Bryan Rust Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (10), Erik Karlsson (37)2–1
- P119:04Anthony Mantha Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (5)1–1
- P17:46Logan Stankoven Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (7), Jackson Blake (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:04Anthony Mantha Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (5)PIT 1 – 1 CAR · PIT 23% → 38% +15PIT 23% → 38%+15 pts
- P211:44Bryan Rust Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (10), Erik Karlsson (37)PIT 2 – 1 CAR · PIT 40% → 61% +21PIT 40% → 61%+21 pts
- P32:49Mark Jankowski Goal (6) Backhand, assists: William Carrier (8), Alexander Nikishin (16)PIT 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 31% → 58% +26CAR 31% → 58%+26 pts
- P33:48Seth Jarvis Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (33)PIT 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 58% → 81% +24CAR 58% → 81%+24 pts
- P319:24Bryan Rust Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (17), Erik Karlsson (38)PIT 4 – 4 CAR · PIT <1% → 49% +49PIT <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML PIT +170 / CAR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CAR -181
- PIT +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −11 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +80 Elo | CAR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 57.0%1st of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%23rd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 8th of 3216–13 | Road vs home | 23–103rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 17th of 321504 | Elo rating | 15644th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–26 | 24–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 22–37 |
| Underdog | 27–7 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–5 CAR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.