Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Denver BarkeyGoals1
- Cam YorkAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals1
- Egor ChinakhovAssists2
- Rickard RakellPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P210:03Denver Barkey Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Matvei Michkov (17), Noah Cates (20)3–3
- P25:45Erik Karlsson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (9), Rickard Rakell (15)2–3
- P24:46Alex Bump Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (9)2–2
- P23:38Rickard Rakell Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (8), Bryan Rust (25)1–2
- P13:54Owen Tippett Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (30), Cam York (19)1–1
- P13:00Thomas Novak Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (14), Ville Koivunen (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:54Owen Tippett Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (30), Cam York (19)PHI 1 – 1 PIT · PHI 30% → 44% +14PHI 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P23:38Rickard Rakell Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (8), Bryan Rust (25)PHI 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 55% → 72% +17PIT 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P24:46Alex Bump Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (9)PHI 2 – 2 PIT · PHI 27% → 45% +18PHI 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P25:45Erik Karlsson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (9), Rickard Rakell (15)PHI 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 55% → 73% +18PIT 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P210:03Denver Barkey Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Matvei Michkov (17), Noah Cates (20)PHI 3 – 3 PIT · PHI 26% → 46% +19PHI 26% → 46%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML PHI +120 / PIT -142
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 60.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +74 Elo | PIT 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 51.8%8th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 3214–16 | Road vs home | 14–1624th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321462 | Elo rating | 150515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–24 | 37–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 27–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–29 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–6 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.