Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Dylan GuentherAssists2
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
FlyersScoring summary
- P318:12Michael Carcone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (9), John Marino (25)3–0
- P28:03Clayton Keller Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Dylan Guenther (25), Nick Schmaltz (34)2–0
- P21:38Nick Schmaltz Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (24), Sean Durzi (17)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:38Nick Schmaltz Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (24), Sean Durzi (17)UTA 1 – 0 PHI · UTA 52% → 69% +17UTA 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P28:03Clayton Keller Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Dylan Guenther (25), Nick Schmaltz (34)UTA 2 – 0 PHI · UTA 71% → 85% +15UTA 71% → 85%+15 pts
- P318:12Michael Carcone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (9), John Marino (25)UTA 3 – 0 PHI · UTA >99% → >99% +0UTA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 52%
- ML UTA -120 / PHI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- UTA: Elo 47.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- UTA -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −20 | +10 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 19th of 3214–17 | Road vs home | 14–1626th of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 32 |
| 9th of 321515 | Elo rating | 146725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–32 | 37–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–24 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 28–13 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–0 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
