Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals2
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Will BorgenAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:10Matvei Michkov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (22), Nick Seeler (6)3–2
- P30:39Trevor Zegras Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (33), Travis Sanheim (20)2–2
- P210:25Matvei Michkov Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (17), Owen Tippett (17)1–2
- P21:23Alexis Lafrenière Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (15), Vincent Trocheck (25)0–2
- P19:56Sam Carrick Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (6), Will Borgen (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:56Sam Carrick Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (6), Will Borgen (4)PHI 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 57% → 71% +15NYR 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P21:23Alexis Lafrenière Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (15), Vincent Trocheck (25)PHI 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 73% → 85% +13NYR 73% → 85%+13 pts
- P210:25Matvei Michkov Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (17), Owen Tippett (17)PHI 1 – 2 NYR · PHI 12% → 26% +14PHI 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P30:39Trevor Zegras Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (33), Travis Sanheim (20)PHI 2 – 2 NYR · PHI 23% → 46% +23PHI 23% → 46%+23 pts
- OT2:10Matvei Michkov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (22), Nick Seeler (6)PHI 3 – 2 NYR · PHI 48% → 95% +47PHI 48% → 95%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 57%
- ML PHI +124 / NYR -148
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 64.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -134
- PHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +13 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +101 Elo | NYR 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 46.9%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3212–16 | Road vs home | 6–1931st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 32 |
| 29th of 321457 | Elo rating | 146624th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–23 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–25 | 26–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–6 NYR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.