Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Teuvo TeravainenGoals2
- Oliver MooreAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
MammothScoring summary
- P31:25Teuvo Teravainen Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (13), Connor Murphy (9)4–0
- P213:07Landon Slaggert Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (12), Artyom Levshunov (20)3–0
- P211:38Nick Foligno Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none2–0
- P119:05Teuvo Teravainen Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (19)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:05Teuvo Teravainen Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (19)CHI 1 – 0 UTA · CHI 30% → 46% +17CHI 30% → 46%+17 pts
- P211:38Nick Foligno Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneCHI 2 – 0 UTA · CHI 53% → 73% +20CHI 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P213:07Landon Slaggert Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (12), Artyom Levshunov (20)CHI 3 – 0 UTA · CHI 74% → 89% +14CHI 74% → 89%+14 pts
- P31:25Teuvo Teravainen Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (13), Connor Murphy (9)CHI 4 – 0 UTA · CHI 95% → 99% +4CHI 95% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 74%
- ML CHI +270 / UTA -340
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- UTA: Elo 75.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -286
- CHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 4.0 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +5 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +197 Elo | UTA 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 74.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.4% | Shot share | 51.9%7th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 30th of 3210–18 | Road vs home | 18–117th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321414 | Elo rating | 15219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–22 | 28–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 15–23 |
| Underdog | 37–20 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–34 | 31–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 UTA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.
