Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Charlie McAvoyGoals1
- Hampus LindholmAssists1
- Charlie McAvoyPoints1
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:07Sean Couturier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (18)1–3
- P313:03Charlie McAvoy Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Hampus Lindholm (16), Pavel Zacha (23)1–2
- P311:55Jamie Drysdale Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (34), Christian Dvorak (24)0–2
- P33:41Travis Konecny Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (23), Jamie Drysdale (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:41Travis Konecny Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (23), Jamie Drysdale (19)BOS 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 51% → 76% +26PHI 51% → 76%+26 pts
- P311:55Jamie Drysdale Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (34), Christian Dvorak (24)BOS 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 84% → 98% +13PHI 84% → 98%+13 pts
- P313:03Charlie McAvoy Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Hampus Lindholm (16), Pavel Zacha (23)BOS 1 – 2 PHI · BOS 2% → 14% +12BOS 2% → 14%+12 pts
- P319:07Sean Couturier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (18)BOS 1 – 3 PHI · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML BOS -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.2 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.4%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 24th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 13–1627th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 32 |
| 18th of 321505 | Elo rating | 146029th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–20 | 35–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 29–10 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–2 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.