Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Noah CatesAssists1
- Noah CatesPoints2
Maple Leafs- Dakota JoshuaGoals1
- Matias MaccelliAssists1
- William NylanderPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Matvei Michkov Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00William Nylander Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P317:30William Nylander Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (28), Matthew Knies (34)2–2
- P314:42Noah Cates Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (13)2–1
- P118:38Christian Dvorak Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (19), Denver Barkey (8)1–1
- P115:22Dakota Joshua Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (16)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:22Dakota Joshua Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (16)PHI 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 70% +16TOR 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P118:38Christian Dvorak Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (19), Denver Barkey (8)PHI 1 – 1 TOR · PHI 29% → 46% +17PHI 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P314:42Noah Cates Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (13)PHI 2 – 1 TOR · PHI 48% → 88% +40PHI 48% → 88%+40 pts
- P317:30William Nylander Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (28), Matthew Knies (34)PHI 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 4% → 51% +47TOR 4% → 51%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML PHI +114 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +7 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +69 Elo | TOR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3213–16 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 32 |
| 25th of 321464 | Elo rating | 150117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–23 | 24–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 7–24 |
| Underdog | 27–13 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27 | 34–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–7 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.