Utah Mammoth at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Capitals- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:31Ryan Leonard Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (33), Jakob Chychrun (27)3–2
- P218:24JJ Peterka Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (11), Sean Durzi (16)3–1
- P119:27Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (19)2–1
- P113:23Mikhail Sergachev Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (42), Dylan Guenther (23)2–0
- P111:12Dylan Guenther Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (41), Nick Schmaltz (33)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:12Dylan Guenther Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (41), Nick Schmaltz (33)UTA 1 – 0 WSH · UTA 50% → 65% +16UTA 50% → 65%+16 pts
- P113:23Mikhail Sergachev Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (42), Dylan Guenther (23)UTA 2 – 0 WSH · UTA 66% → 79% +14UTA 66% → 79%+14 pts
- P119:27Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (19)UTA 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 19% → 33% +14WSH 19% → 33%+14 pts
- P218:24JJ Peterka Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (11), Sean Durzi (16)UTA 3 – 1 WSH · UTA 73% → 89% +16UTA 73% → 89%+16 pts
- P36:31Ryan Leonard Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (33), Jakob Chychrun (27)UTA 3 – 2 WSH · WSH 6% → 22% +16WSH 6% → 22%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML UTA -108 / WSH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- UTA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +7 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +40 Elo | WSH 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 50.9%12th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 21st of 3213–17 | Road vs home | 19–1310th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 32 |
| 14th of 321512 | Elo rating | 151311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–32 | 33–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–24 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29 | 29–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.
