Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Erik KarlssonGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Erik KarlssonPoints1
Bruins- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Nikita ZadorovAssists1
- Casey MittelstadtPoints1
Scoring summary
- P16:00Casey Mittelstadt Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (17), Pavel Zacha (24)1–2
- P15:10Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (10)1–1
- P10:42Erik Karlsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (24)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:42Erik Karlsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (24)PIT 1 – 0 BOS · PIT 48% → 62% +14PIT 48% → 62%+14 pts
- P15:10Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (10)PIT 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 37% → 52% +15BOS 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P16:00Casey Mittelstadt Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (17), Pavel Zacha (24)PIT 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 52% → 67% +15BOS 52% → 67%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML PIT +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +20 Elo | BOS 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 47.5%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 5th of 3216–12 | Road vs home | 22–92nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 12th of 321513 | Elo rating | 150117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–23 | 38–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–17 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 26–6 | 29–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–5 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.