Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Ryan SheaGoals1
- Connor CliftonAssists1
- Anthony ManthaPoints1
Rangers- Taylor RaddyshGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Vincent Trocheck Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P32:57Taylor Raddysh Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (13), Brendan Brisson (1)2–2
- P210:00Mika Zibanejad Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (26), J.T. Miller (23)2–1
- P21:59Ryan Shea Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (3), Blake Lizotte (12)2–0
- P12:08Anthony Mantha Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (32), Bryan Rust (22)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:08Anthony Mantha Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (32), Bryan Rust (22)PIT 1 – 0 NYR · PIT 53% → 67% +14PIT 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P21:59Ryan Shea Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (3), Blake Lizotte (12)PIT 2 – 0 NYR · PIT 70% → 84% +14PIT 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P210:00Mika Zibanejad Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (26), J.T. Miller (23)PIT 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 14% → 28% +15NYR 14% → 28%+15 pts
- P32:57Taylor Raddysh Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (13), Brendan Brisson (1)PIT 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 23% → 48% +25NYR 23% → 48%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -125 / NYR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 2.7 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +12 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +5 Elo | PIT 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 47.0%28th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 4th of 3216–11 | Road vs home | 6–2031st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 32 |
| 15th of 321510 | Elo rating | 146326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–22 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 25–6 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–27 | 26–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–6 NYR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.