Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights
Penguins- Justin BrazeauGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:59Justin Brazeau Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (14), Kris Letang (24)0–5
- P215:06Rickard Rakell Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (34), Bryan Rust (23)0–4
- P29:34Bryan Rust Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (33), Evgeni Malkin (34)0–3
- P25:47Egor Chinakhov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (21), Justin Brazeau (13)0–2
- P114:56Ben Kindel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:56Ben Kindel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (24)VGK 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 43% → 59% +17PIT 43% → 59%+17 pts
- P25:47Egor Chinakhov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (21), Justin Brazeau (13)VGK 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 63% → 79% +16PIT 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P29:34Bryan Rust Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (33), Evgeni Malkin (34)VGK 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 81% → 92% +11PIT 81% → 92%+11 pts
- P215:06Rickard Rakell Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (34), Bryan Rust (23)VGK 0 – 4 PIT · PIT 94% → 98% +4PIT 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P314:59Justin Brazeau Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (14), Kris Letang (24)VGK 0 – 5 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML VGK -155 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- VGK: Elo 51.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.5 – 3.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +9 Elo | VGK 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.6% | Shot share | 51.8%8th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 16th of 3214–16 | Road vs home | 13–1525th of 32 |
| 28th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149232nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321518 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–37 | 35–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–36 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 25–6 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.