Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Owen PowerGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists1
- Josh NorrisPoints2
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Ben KindelAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:53Mattias Samuelsson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–1
- P210:30Owen Power Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (13), Noah Ostlund (12)4–1
- P26:18Alex Tuch Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Owen Power (15), Tage Thompson (32)3–1
- P24:10Josh Norris Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (23), Bowen Byram (22)2–1
- P114:48Bryan Rust Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (15)1–1
- P112:00Ryan McLeod Goal (12) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:00Ryan McLeod Goal (12) Backhand, assists: noneBUF 1 – 0 PIT · BUF 51% → 67% +16BUF 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P114:48Bryan Rust Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (15)BUF 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 33% → 49% +16PIT 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P24:10Josh Norris Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (23), Bowen Byram (22)BUF 2 – 1 PIT · BUF 51% → 69% +18BUF 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P26:18Alex Tuch Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Owen Power (15), Tage Thompson (32)BUF 3 – 1 PIT · BUF 69% → 84% +15BUF 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P210:30Owen Power Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (13), Noah Ostlund (12)BUF 4 – 1 PIT · BUF 86% → 94% +9BUF 86% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML BUF -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 48.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +11 Elo | PIT 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 51.8%7th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%12th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 6th of 3218–14 | Road vs home | 14–1523rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 32 |
| 5th of 321539 | Elo rating | 151113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–25 | 37–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 27–6 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 30–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–5 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.