Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Reilly SmithAssists1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints1
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists2
- Rasmus DahlinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P28:27Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (9)2–3
- P26:50Ivan Barbashev Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Shea Theodore (21), Jack Eichel (48)1–3
- P25:44Tage Thompson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (28), Rasmus Dahlin (41)0–3
- P20:46Owen Power Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (11)0–2
- P14:02Jason Zucker Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (32), Rasmus Dahlin (40)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:02Jason Zucker Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (32), Rasmus Dahlin (40)VGK 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 55% → 69% +14BUF 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P20:46Owen Power Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (11)VGK 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 71% → 84% +13BUF 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P25:44Tage Thompson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (28), Rasmus Dahlin (41)VGK 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 86% → 94% +8BUF 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P26:50Ivan Barbashev Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Shea Theodore (21), Jack Eichel (48)VGK 1 – 3 BUF · VGK 6% → 14% +8VGK 6% → 14%+8 pts
- P28:27Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (9)VGK 2 – 3 BUF · VGK 14% → 28% +14VGK 14% → 28%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 55%
- ML VGK +114 / BUF -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 59.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -123
- VGK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.1 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +67 Elo | BUF 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 18th of 3214–17 | Road vs home | 17–117th of 32 |
| 27th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 13th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15375th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–38 | 36–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–37 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–26 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–3 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.