Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Josh NorrisGoals2
- Rasmus DahlinAssists2
- Rasmus DahlinPoints3
Lightning- Victor HedmanGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists1
- Victor HedmanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:27Victor Hedman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (37)6–2
- P33:43Alex Tuch Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (39), Jack Quinn (26)6–1
- P216:03Dominic James Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (18), Victor Hedman (14)5–1
- P21:54Zach Metsa Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–0
- P115:06Tage Thompson Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (20), Rasmus Dahlin (38)4–0
- P18:18Josh Norris Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (21), Zach Benson (20)3–0
- P16:15Josh Norris Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (22), Zach Metsa (2)2–0
- P15:25Rasmus Dahlin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:25Rasmus Dahlin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (14)BUF 1 – 0 TB · BUF 33% → 47% +15BUF 33% → 47%+15 pts
- P16:15Josh Norris Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (22), Zach Metsa (2)BUF 2 – 0 TB · BUF 48% → 63% +15BUF 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P18:18Josh Norris Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (21), Zach Benson (20)BUF 3 – 0 TB · BUF 64% → 77% +13BUF 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P115:06Tage Thompson Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (20), Rasmus Dahlin (38)BUF 4 – 0 TB · BUF 81% → 90% +9BUF 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P21:54Zach Metsa Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 5 – 0 TB · BUF 93% → 97% +4BUF 93% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 68%
- ML BUF +200 / TB -245
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TB: Elo 68.7%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -213
- BUF +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +11 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +136 Elo | TB 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 66.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 51.5%9th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.9%4th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 10th of 3217–14 | Road vs home | 18–95th of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 6th of 321530 | Elo rating | 15891st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–24 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 18–28 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–4 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.