Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals3
- Viktor ArvidssonAssists2
- Pavel ZachaPoints3
Penguins- Anthony ManthaGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Anthony ManthaPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:17Thomas Novak Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none4–5
- P311:18Anthony Mantha Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (17), Erik Karlsson (36)4–4
- P38:34Pavel Zacha Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (17), Jonathan Aspirot (8)4–3
- P36:35Anthony Mantha Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Thomas Novak (22), Ilya Solovyov (6)3–3
- P36:02Connor Dewar Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Ryan Shea (21)3–2
- P214:44Egor Chinakhov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (16), Erik Karlsson (35)3–1
- P212:23David Pastrnak Goal (23) Backhand, assists: none3–0
- P28:47Pavel Zacha Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (16), Jonathan Aspirot (7)2–0
- P19:27Pavel Zacha Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (23), Charlie McAvoy (39)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P36:02Connor Dewar Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Ryan Shea (21)BOS 3 – 2 PIT · PIT 7% → 24% +17PIT 7% → 24%+17 pts
- P36:35Anthony Mantha Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Thomas Novak (22), Ilya Solovyov (6)BOS 3 – 3 PIT · PIT 23% → 52% +28PIT 23% → 52%+28 pts
- P38:34Pavel Zacha Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (17), Jonathan Aspirot (8)BOS 4 – 3 PIT · BOS 49% → 79% +30BOS 49% → 79%+30 pts
- P311:18Anthony Mantha Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (17), Erik Karlsson (36)BOS 4 – 4 PIT · PIT 18% → 51% +34PIT 18% → 51%+34 pts
- OT0:17Thomas Novak Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneBOS 4 – 5 PIT · PIT 51% → 91% +40PIT 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML BOS +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +42 Elo | PIT 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 51.9%8th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 25th of 3211–17 | Road vs home | 14–1726th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321502 | Elo rating | 150217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–23 | 37–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 29–12 | 27–7 |
| Overs–unders | 34–28 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–2 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.